Large cities have higher crime rates than small cities.
Why, then, doesn’t the crime rate increase more when cities get bigger than when they get smaller?

We believe the answer to this anomaly is…

partly statistical—the crime rate goes up both when population goes up and when it goes down

partly theoretical—population change of any kind erodes community cohesion, at least for a while. This erosion of community is what causes the crime rate to rise with any population change.

We hope to verify these hypotheses soon with census data on 426 U.S. cities from 1960 to 1990.

Wilmington, NC. Pop. 59,487.
Violent crime rate 1217 per 100,000 pop. (1990)

Baltimore, MD. Pop. 726,096.
Violent crime rate 2621 per 100,000 pop. (1990)

Charles Tittle, Goodnight-Glaxo-Welcome Professor of Sociology